A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the … inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight …-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by …

” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many U.S. metropolitan areas. Inflation in the … effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation …

What makes e-money more special than cash? Is the introduction of e-money necessarily welfare enhancing? Is an e-money … system necessarily stable? What is the optimal way to design an efficient and stable e-money scheme? This paper provides a … first attempt to develop a micro-founded, dynamic, general-equilibrium model of e-money for investigating these policy …

In the United States prior to 1863 each bank issued its own distinct notes. E-money shares many of the characteristics … of these bank notes. This paper describes some lessons relevant to e-money from the U.S. experience with state bank notes … functioning of the system. The U.S. experience with state bank notes suggests that a privately-issued e-money system can operate …

longer-term market interest rates by taking into account the relationship between interest rates, inflation, and unemployment … rates. By using vector autoregressive models of monthly interest rates, month-over-month inflation, and unemployment rates … lowering Canadian interest rates relative to what their historical relationship with inflation and unemployment rates would …

the output gap related to changes in the trend of inflation shows an excess demand of around 1 per cent. The rise in the … trend of inflation is only very slightly visible, since it is hidden by certain real demand shocks that have temporarily … driven inflation down. …