inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight … inflation, forecasting the eight-quarter inflation rate with relatively small errors. The authors also stress that, to be most … useful for monetary policy, inflation forecasts should explicitly indicate the range of uncertainty inherent in forecasting …

In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area …