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Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective

Poloz, Stephen S. - Bank of Canada - 2014

This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making. The sort of post-crisis uncertainty that central banks are dealing with today is more profound than that which is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011097372

Consumption, housing collateral, and the Canadian business cycle

Christensen, Ian; Corrigan, Paul; Mendicino, Caterina; … - 2009

the value of their housing stock. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in … model in terms of overall goodness of fit. In particular, the presence of housing collateral generates a positive … correlation between consumption and house prices. Finally we find that housing collateral induced spillovers account for a large …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003933334

Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply

Bulusu, Narayan; Duarte, Jefferson; Vergara-Alert, Carles - Bank of Canada - 2013

representative-agent model under irreversibility of housing investment, we derive a relationship between housing returns and changes … in supply constraints and determinants of housing demand. Our empirical analysis shows that supply constraints play an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010667178

Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches

Pichette, Lise - Bank of Canada - 2012

Since the autumn of 1997, the regional offices of the Bank of Canada have conducted quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada. These consultations, summarized in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), are structured around a survey questionnaire that covers topics of importance to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010599186

The Bank of Canada's Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM)

Lalonde, Rene; Muir, Dirk - Bank of Canada - 2007

The Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM) is derived from the model created at the International Monetary Fund by Douglas Laxton (IMF) and Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and National Bureau of Economic Research). The GEM is a dynamic stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808259

Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework

Lam, Jean-Paul - Bank of Canada - 2004

In an era when the primary policy instrument is the level of the short-term interest rate, a comparison of that rate with some equilibrium rate can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy. The real interest rate gap—the difference between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808295

The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models

Demers, Frédérick; Macdonald, Ryan - Bank of Canada - 2007

This paper examines the ability of linear and nonlinear models to replicate features of real Canadian GDP. We evaluate the models using various business-cycle metrics. From the 9 data generating processes designed, none can completely accommodate every business-cycle metric under consideration....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808308

Does Indexation Bias the Estimated Frequency of Price Adjustment?

Kichian, Maral; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy - Bank of Canada - 2007

We assess the implications of price indexation for estimated frequency of price adjustment in sticky price models of business cycles. These models predominantly assume that non-reoptimized prices are indexed to lagged or average inflation. The assumption of price indexation adds tractability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808332

Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model

Dib, Ali; Gammoudi, Mohamed; Moran, Kevin - Bank of Canada - 2006

The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada. They estimate their variant of the model on a series of rolling subsamples, computing out-of-sample forecasts one to eight quarters ahead at each step. They compare these forecasts with those...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808339

Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada

Gosselin, Marc-André; Tkacz, Greg - Bank of Canada - 2001

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation. Using a dimension-reduction method similar to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808341

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