The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of … growth. An array of multivariate forecasting models are considered for five Canadian regions, and single-equation models are … considered for direct forecasting of Canadian GDP. The authors focus on forecasts at 1-, 2-, 4-, and 8-quarter horizons, which …

activity or inflation. This is of particular interest in the context of an inflation-targeting regime, where the monetary … policy stance is set according to inflation forecasts. While most empirical studies on causality have examined this issue … criteria. The causality pattern inferred by the authors' procedure is consistent with the Phillips curve (for the inflation …

The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the …

Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low … levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now … bring inflation up to target. In this paper, the author tests to what extent inflation expectations are anchored in such …

obvious advantage of financial and energy market data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily … monthly inventories. We conclude that typically not much is lost by ignoring high-frequency financial data in forecasting the …

This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey …. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or … the average household in response to increasing media reporting about inflation. …

In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area …