The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of … growth. An array of multivariate forecasting models are considered for five Canadian regions, and single-equation models are … considered for direct forecasting of Canadian GDP. The authors focus on forecasts at 1-, 2-, 4-, and 8-quarter horizons, which …

activity or inflation. This is of particular interest in the context of an inflation-targeting regime, where the monetary … policy stance is set according to inflation forecasts. While most empirical studies on causality have examined this issue … criteria. The causality pattern inferred by the authors' procedure is consistent with the Phillips curve (for the inflation …

important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is …. Our objective is to evaluate this proposition. We derive from first principles a number of alternative forecasting model … not all product spread models are useful for out-of-sample forecasting, but some models are, even at horizons between one …

approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model … the single mostaccurate forecasting model by horizon, its accuracy can be shown to be much more stable over time. The mean …

This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial …

The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the …