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This paper is a user' guide to a set of Guss procedures developed at the Bank of Canada for estimating regime-switching models. The procedure can estimate relatively quickly a wide variety of switching models and so should prove useful to the applied researchers. Sample program listings are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005673371
The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005011868
which commodity prices respond to market participant’s changing expectations of the future macroeconomic environment. In the … revisions to professional forecasts of industrial production growth for a large group of emerging market and advanced economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009651314
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678322
The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003933207
, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. An … obvious advantage of financial and energy market data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010762047
The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to loglinearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. Structural parameters are either...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008495570
Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the … indicates that financial firms’ positions did not cause the market to expect persistent price increases during 2007/08. Other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323062
Using a rich sample of Canadian government securities auctions, we estimate the structural parameters of a share-auction model accounting for asymmetries across bidders. We find little evidence of asymmetries between participants at Canadian government nominal bond auctions. A counter-factual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005673333
, transportation and distribution are responsible for higher retail food prices. Finally, there is no evidence that oil-market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010726969