Inflation dynamics in advanced countries have produced two consecutive puzzles during the years after the global … financial crisis. The first puzzle emerged when inflation rates over the period 2009-11 were consistently higher than expected … today - was initially observed in 2012, when inflation rates in advanced countries were weakening rapidly despite the …

. The authors fill in the gaps by constructing a 50-year monthly history of expected inflation at all horizons from one … month to 10 years that is consistent with inflation data and infrequent survey data. In the process, some models that fit … inflation well are found to generate forecasts that bear little resemblance to survey data. Also, survey data on near …

the average anticipated path of policy responses to inflation is subject to a lower bound of unity. This result helps … explain how bond rates may exhibit stable responses to inflation, even in periods of passive policy. Another possible … explanation is time-varying term premiums with risk pricing that depends on inflation. The authors present a no-arbitrage model of …

of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation …. Empirical results support a description of policy with an effective inflation target of roughly 7 percent in the 1970s. Moreover … Inflation while favouring a passive-policy description of monetary policy. FOMC transcripts provide a neglected interpretation …

A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the … inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight …-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by …

” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many U.S. metropolitan areas. Inflation in the … effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation …

The authors analyze the extent to which inflation-targeting frameworks should incorporate flexibility in order to … the Bank's current inflation-targeting framework, and conclude that maintaining low and stable consumer price inflation is … inflation by leaning against an asset-price bubble (even though it may mean that inflation deviates longer than usual from its …