In this paper, the Kalman filter method is applied to UK Phillips-curve models and estimates are derived for the NAIRU from 1973 to 2000. The resulting profiles suggest that the NAIRU peaked around the mid-1980s and fell back thereafter. Structural changes in the labour market have reduced...

During the second half of the 1990s the US economy was characterised as the Goldilocks economy: not too hot, nor too cold, but just right. It was argued that this represented a new paradigm, enabling unemployment to remain low without igniting inflationary pressure. In this paper the evidence...