This paper uses a number of simple VAR models for the industrialised world, the United States and the euro area respectively to analyse the underlying shocks that may have caused the recent slowdown. The results of two identification strategies are compared. One is based on traditional zero...

This paper analyses the role of the real exchange rate in a structural vector autoregression framework for the United Kingdom, euro area, Japan and Canada versus the United States. A new identification strategy is proposed building on sign restrictions. The results are compared to the benchmark...

We investigate whether business cycle fluctuations affect the degree of excess sensitivity of private consumption growth to disposable income growth. Using multivariate state space methods and quarterly US data for the period 1965-2000 we find that excess sensitivity is significantly higher...