This article examines the nature of the empirical instability in dynamic term structure models. I show that using survey forecasts is an effective solution because it directly addresses the information imbalance at the heart of the instability: it increases the (cross-section) information on...

This paper shows how to use adaptive particle filtering and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) by likelihood inference. The procedure is applied to a quadratic model for the United States during the recent financial crisis. We find that this...

Financial institutions have for many years sought measures which cogently summarise the diverse market risks in portfolios of financial instruments. This quest led institutions to develop Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for their trading portfolios in the 1990s. Subsequently, so-called filtered...

We use data on UK banks’ minimum capital requirements to study the interaction of monetary policy and capital requirement regulation. UK banks were subject to both time-varying capital requirements and changes in interest rate policy. Tightening of either capital requirements or monetary...

We test whether quantitative easing (QE) provided a boost to bank lending in the United Kingdom, in addition to the effects on asset prices, demand and inflation focused on in most other studies. Using a data set available to researchers at the Bank, we use two alternative approaches to identify...

This paper investigates the role of credit demand and supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during both the recent financial crisis and the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural vector autoregression analysis to identify...

We use data on UK banks’ minimum capital requirements to study the impact of changes to bank-specific capital requirements on cross-border bank loan supply from 1999 Q1 to 2006 Q4. By examining a sample in which each recipient country has multiple relationships with UK-resident banks, we are...

The most recent recession has been associated with a financial crisis that led to a large widening of spreads and quantitative restrictions on lending. As well as affecting investment, such a credit contraction is likely to have had a large effect on the working capital positions of UK firms and...

A number of OECD countries experienced an environment of low interest rates and a rapid increase in housing market activity during the last decade. Previous work suggests three potential explanations for these events: expansionary monetary policy, capital inflows due to a global savings glut and...

This paper examines whether cross-border spillovers of macroprudential regulation depend on the organisational structure of banks’ foreign affiliates. Our analysis compares the response of foreign banks’ branches versus subsidiaries in the United Kingdom to changes in macroprudential...