A well-documented empirical result is that market expectations extracted from futures contracts on the federal funds rate are among the best predictors for the future course of monetary policy. We show how this information can be exploited to produce accurate forecasts of bond excess returns and...

This paper investigates the dynamics of capital structure of Japanese firms since the early 1990s to shed light on how far the reduction of excess leverage has progressed so far in Japan. Our main findings are as follows. First, the trade-off theory provides an appropriate framework to assess...