This paper considers estimating the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with the mean following an ARMA (1,7) process, and the conditional variance with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by ARCH models. The volatility is measured by a...

This study explores the volatility models and evaluates the quality of one-step ahead forecasts of volatility constructed by (1) GARCH, (2) TGARCH, (3) Risk metrics and (4) Historical volatility. Volatility forecasts suggest that TGARCH performs relatively best in term of MSPE, followed by...

This paper investigates sensitivity of the VaR models when return series of stocks and stock indices are not normally distributed. It also studies the effect of market capitalization of stocks and stock indices on their Value at risk and Conditional VaR estimation. Three different market...

The paper presents and tests Dynamic Value at Risk (VaR) estimation procedures for equity index returns. Volatility clustering and leptokurtosis are well-documented characteristics of such time series. An ARMA (1, 1)-GARCH (1, 1) ap- proach models the inherent autocorrelation and dynamic...

Since the global financial crisis, Central Banks have used various policy tools to sustain financial stability besides price stability. Additional Monetary Tightening is one of these tools that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey used in 2011-2012. The effects of this tool on the exchange...

A two-step approach for conditional Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is considered. In the first step, a generalized-quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (gQMLE) is employed to estimate the volatility parameter, and in the second step the empirical quantile of the residuals serves to estimate the...

This paper provides an assessment of the comparative effectiveness of four econometric methods in estimating the optimal hedge ratio in an emerging equity market, particularly the South African equity and futures markets. The paper bases the effectiveness of hedging on volatility reduction and...

In this paper, the variance-ratio test and the ARMA-GARCH (1,1) are used to test whether the Stock Exchange of Thailand is an efficient market. Using monthly market index during January 1987 and December 2006, the variance-ratio test shows that the market index follows a random walk process, and...

Monthly seasonality in the stock prices returns is among the best known calendar anomalies that affect the capital markets. The knowledge about such calendar patterns could be exploited in building successful investment strategies. However, it was revealed that not all the calendar anomalies...

This paper investigates the presence of Gone Fishin’ Effects on the Romanian Capital Market from January 2000 to July 2013. In this analysis we employ daily values of five main indexes of Bucharest Stock Exchange. We use GARCH models to reveal this seasonality not only on indexes returns but...