The marginal cost of aggregate fluctuations has a term structure that is a simple transformation of the term structures of equity and interest rates. I extract evidence from index option markets to infer a downward-sloping, volatile and procyclical term structure of welfare costs. On average,...

- Contrairement au marché américain, le marché de la titrisation européenne ne s’est pas totalement effondré avec la crise financière de 2008, même s’il a connu depuis une certaine atonie. La plus grande attention désormais apportée à la qualité des actifs sous-jacents a permis un...

Speculators can discover whether a signal is true or false by processing it but this takes time. Hence they face a trade-off between trading fast on a signal (i.e., before processing it), at the risk of trading on a false news, or trading after processing the signal, at the risk that prices...

This paper introduces a novel kind of interest-rate model offering simple analytical pricing formulas for swaps, futures, swaptions, caps and floors. The model is based on an original use of regime-switching features that makes it consistent with the non-linear behavior of interest rates. In...

This paper develops an arbitrage-free affine term structure model of potentially defaultable sovereign bonds to model a cross-section of eight euro area government bond yield curves since January 1999. The existence of a common monetary policy under European Monetary Union determines the short...

The purpose of the paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates able to capture simultaneously the following important features : (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and switching...

Macroeconomic questions involving interest rates generally require a reliable joint dynamics of a large set of variables. More precisely, such a dynamic modelling must satisfy two important conditions. First, it must be able to propose reliable predictions of some key variables. Second, it must...

Nous etudions dans ce papier la relation entre le rendement et le risque pour les marches de taux sur l'euro-dollar, l'euro-mark et l'euro-franc, de 1975 à 1997. Nous testons la relation entre l'exces de rendement de portage et la volatilite a partir d'une modelisation ARCH-in-Mean. Nous...

En nous inspirant des travaux portant sur les marches boursiers des pays industrialisés, nous analysons la volatilite des rendements boursiers d'Asie du Sud-Est à partir de la méthodologie ARCH. Notre objectif consiste à mettre en évidence les spécificités des marchés boursiers du...

Recent portfolio choice asset pricing and option valuation models highlight the importance of skewness and kurtosis. Since skewness and kurtosis are related to extreme variations they are also important for Value-at-Risk measurements. Our framework builds on a GARCH model with a condi-tional...