We propose a rigorous and flexible methodological framework to select and calibrate initial shocks to be used in bank stress test scenarios based on statistical techniques for detecting outliers in time series of risk factors. Our approach allows us to characterize not only the magnitude, but...

This paper models the relationship between growth and volatility for G7 economies in the time period 1960-2009. It delivers for the first time estimates of this relationship based on a logarithm variant of stochastic volatility in mean (SV-M) models. The relationship appears significantly...

We use a multivariate hazard model to analyse the ratification behaviour of ILO conventions by developing countries. The model accounts for two random effects: one at the country level, the other at the convention level. After investigating identification, we use a semi-parametric Bayesian...

The aim of this paper is to complement the MDE--SVAR approach when the weighting matrix is not optimal. In empirical studies, this choice is motivated by stochastic singularity or collinearity problems associated with the covariance matrix of Impulse Response Functions. Consequently, the...

The paper analyzes the existence and impact of financing constraints as a possibly serious obstacle to innovation by .rms. The econometric framework we employ in our study is the simultaneous bivariate probit with mutual endogeneity of direct indicators of financial constraints and innovation...

We estimate the reaction function of monetary policy in the Euro area and derive the Taylor-type policy rule that a would-be ECB would have followed since the beginning of the European Monetary System (1979-2003). We first follow the standard GMM methodology developed by Clarida, Galí and...

In this paper we provide a unified methodology for conducting likelihood-based inference on the unknown parameters of a general class of discrete-time stochastic volatility (SV) models, characterized by both a leverage effect and jumps in returns. Given the nonlinear/non-Gaussian state-space...

This article proposes a theoretical framework to investigate economic robustness to exogenous shocks such as natural disasters. It is based on a dynamic model that represents a regional economy as a network of production units through the disaggregation of sectorscale Input-Output tables....

The Gram-Charlier expansion, where skewness and kurtosi directly appear as parameters, has become popular in Finance as a generalization of the normal density. We show how positivity constraints can be numerically implemented, thereby guaranteeing that the expansion defines a density. The...

Gram-Charlier expansion have become popular in Finance as a generalization over the normality assumption. Even though Gram-Charlier expansions allow for a certain flexibility over skewness and kurtosis they have the unfortunate drawback of sometimes yielding negative densities. The goal of this...