In recent years, the dynamics of M3 in the euro area have been driven by two factors: a strong preference for liquidity, observed between 2001 and 2003, followed by a normalisation, at a relatively moderate pace, of portfolio behaviour; as regards the counterparts, changes in M3 and net external...

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends...

This paper proposes a full description of the Calvo price-setting model based on partial prices indexation and studies the interaction between partial indexation and trend inflation. We show that using a hybrid version of the Phillips curve partly decreases the risks of overestimate due to the...

Many macroeconomic models involve hybrid equations, in which some variables are a function of both their lags and their expected future value. The hybrid "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve is a prominent example. Estimates of such hybrid models have produced conflicting empirical results: Studies...

This paper uses disaggregated CPI time series to show that a break in the mean of French inflation occurred in the mid-eighties and that the 1983 monetary policy shift mostly accounted for it. CPI average yearly growth declined from nearly 11% before the break date (May 1985) to 2.1% after. No...

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors for two different sets of recent forecasts data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the U.S. and the Central Bank inflation forecasts for France. Mainly two salient...

The rate-of-return-dominance puzzle asks why low-return assets, like fiat money, are used in actual economies given that risk-free higher-return assets are available. As long as this question remains unresolved, most conclusions from monetary models which arbitrarily restrict the marketability...

This paper investigates how the identification assumptions of monetary policy shocks modify the inference in a standard DSGE model. Considering SVAR models in which either the interest rate is predetermined for money or these two monetary variables are simultaneously determined, two DSGE models...

Theory and evidence suggest that in an environment of well-anchored expectations, temporary economic news or shocks should not affect agents' expectations of inflation in the long term. Our estimated structural VARs show that both long- and short-term inflation expectations are sensitive to...

In this paper, we propose a simple econometric framework to disentangle the respective roles of monetary policy inertia and persistent shocks in interest rate rules. The procedure exploits the cross-equation restrictions provided by a DSGE model which is confronted to a monetary SVAR. We show...