This paper examines the exchange rate predictability stemming from the equilibrium model of international financial adjustment developed by Gourinchas and Rey (2007). Using predictive variables that measure cyclical external imbalances for country pairs, we assess the ability of this model to...

We identify and examine the presence of the long memory in equity returns and more generally in specific transformations of these returns, on both the US and European stock markets. Taking into account the persistence phenomenon, we analyze the effect of the splitting of the sample period on the...

Recent empirical work has shown that current account deficits have been associated with lower growth in developing countries while they have been associated with higher growth in developed countries. This paper shows that this can be rationalized in an environment where firms face (i)...

Empirical techniques to assess market comovements are numerous from cointegration to dynamic conditional correlations. This paper uses the fractal properties of asset returns and presents estimations of Markov switching multifractal models [as MSM] to give new insights about short and long run...

This paper addresses the macroeconomic impact of international financial integration. I first provide empirical evidence that foreign banking penetration can be associated with a contraction of banking credit, especially in countries with poor credit markets. Second I present a model in which...

We develop a new methodology that measures conditional dependency. We achieve this by using copula functions that link marginal distributions, here chosen to obey a GARCH-type model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis. We apply this model to daily returns of stock-market indices. We find...

We develop a new methodology that measures conditional dependency. We achieve this by using copula functions that link marginal distributions, here chosen to obey a GARCH-type model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis. We apply this model to daily returns of stock-market indices. We find...

Using daily data covering the 1988-1995 period, this paper checks the effects of three kinds of determinants on the main stock market indices of the G5: interactions between return and volatility, international transmission mechanisms and impact of trading volumes. The non-significance of...