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Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy

Andrade, P.; Ghysels, E.; Idier, J. - Banque de France - 2012

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815970

Are the effects of fiscal changes different in times of crisis and non-crisis? The French Case

Bouthevillain, C.; Dufrénot, G. - Banque de France - 2010

magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis in France. We find that these nonlinearities are both frequent (as they exist on all … show that if one considers the aggregate GDP, public expenditure has a stronger impact during crisis and the expenditure … taxes changes induce a (stimulus) effect in the investment rate only during non-crisis periods. A rise in subsidies has a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008606459

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations.

Istrefi, K.; Piloiu, A. - Banque de France - 2014

Theory and evidence suggest that in an environment of well-anchored expectations, temporary economic news or shocks should not affect agents' expectations of inflation in the long term. Our estimated structural VARs show that both long- and short-term inflation expectations are sensitive to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010937890