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The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area.
Mésonnier, J-S. - Banque de France - 2006
The real interest rate gap or IRG -the gap between the short term real interest rate and its "natural" level-, is a theoretical concept that has attracted much attention in central banks in recent years. This paper aims at clarifying its practical relevance for monetary policy in real time. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998811
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Fixed-Income Pricing in a Non-Linear Interest-Rate Model.
Renne, J-P. - Banque de France - 2014
This paper introduces a novel kind of interest-rate model offering simple analytical pricing formulas for swaps, futures, swaptions, caps and floors. The model is based on an original use of regime-switching features that makes it consistent with the non-linear behavior of interest rates. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010940878
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A model of the euro-area yield curve with discrete policy rates.
Renne, J-P. - Banque de France - 2012
This paper presents a no-arbitrage model of the yield curve that explicitly incorporates the central-bank policy rate. After having estimated the model using daily euro-area data, I explore the behaviour of risk premia at the short end of the yield curve. These risk premia are neglected by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010568851
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How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies
Banerjee, A.; Bystrov, V.; Mizen, P. - Banque de France - 2012
In this paper we argue that banks anticipate short-term market rates when setting interest rates on loans and deposits. In order to include anticipated rates in an empirical model, we use two methods to forecast market rates - a level, slope, curvature model and a principal components model -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009651277
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Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?
Ferrara, L.; Marcellino, M.; Mogliani, M. - Banque de France - 2012
The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession … provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models … some countries and/or variables appear to be more adapted to non-linear forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550857
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DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment.
Boivin, J.; Giannoni, M. - Banque de France - 2007
Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998848
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Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models
Marsilli, C. - Banque de France - 2014
In short-term forecasting, it is essential to take into account all available information on the current state of the … cross-validation procedure that allows automatic in-sample selection based on recent forecasting performances. Then the … developed techniques are assessed with regards to their forecasting power of US economic growth during the period 2000 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010961062
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The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the market for collateral: The case of the French bond market
Avouyi-Dovi, S.; Idier, J. - Banque de France - 2011
We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009275673
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Central bank liquidity and market liquidity: the role of collateral provision on the French government debt securities market.
Avouyi-Dovi, S.; Idier, J. - Banque de France - 2010
We examine the effects of collateral provision as a potential channel between funding liquidity tensions and the scarcity of market liquidity. This channel consists in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008516105
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Euro Area monetary policy shocks: impact on financial asset prices during the crisis?
Jardet, C.; Monks, A. - Banque de France - 2014
We use high-frequency intraday interest rate data to measure euro area monetary policy shocks on the days of ECB interest rate announcements between 2002 and 2013. In line with Gürkaynak et al. (2005), we look at monetary policy shocks along two time dimensions: one related to the current level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938544