This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can be instantaneously and costlessly combined. However,...

This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major...

In this paper, we propose a simple econometric framework to disentangle the respective roles of monetary policy inertia and persistent shocks in interest rate rules. The procedure exploits the cross-equation restrictions provided by a DSGE model which is confronted to a monetary SVAR. We show...

The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

Using a common database, we provide a controlled empirical comparison of recently-proposed principal component (PC) methods for selecting a combination of common and local factors that characterize the joint dynamics of multi-country term structures. We build a database of daily Treasury yield...

Nous comparons dans ce papier la qualite et le contenu en information des densites neutres au risque, obtenus a partir de differentes representations de ces densites: l'approche non-parametrique fondee sur un melange de densites log-normales; les formulations semi-parametriques fondees sur...

The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem projection exercises, the projections are conditional to specific assumptions and must be consistent with the Macroeconomic projection exercise of the Banque de France. The...

Estimating mixture models still raises numerous questions, both theoretical and empirical. However, this class of model appears quite powerful for a parcimonious modelization of ill-behaved distribution, as it is the case with loans rate vis-à-vis the private sector collected by the Banque de...

The paper analyzes the existence and impact of financing constraints as a possibly serious obstacle to innovation by .rms. The econometric framework we employ in our study is the simultaneous bivariate probit with mutual endogeneity of direct indicators of financial constraints and innovation...

With the European economic integration, the understanding of inflation and inflationary pressures requires to analyse both the national level and the whole Euro area level. This is true in particular for the inflation forecasts that are carried out within the Eurosystem and published four times...