I study the role of shocks to beliefs combined with Bayesian learning in a standard equilibrium business cycle …, households hold twisted beliefs concerning the likelihood and persistence of recession and boom states, beliefs which are only … to the rational expectations equilibrium. This provides some evidence of the lingering effects of beliefs-twisting events …

indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker's point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as … uncertainty and the choice of the selected loss function, the recommendations for monetary policy can be noticeably different …

growth. We investigate the consequences of both measurement uncertainty with respect to unobservable variables and … uncertainty about key model parameters. An optimized Taylor rule with time-varying neutral rate appears to perform well compared … penalized by taking into account both types of uncertainty. …