We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in...

In this paper, we provide solution methods for non-linear rational expectations models in which regime-switching or the shocks themselves may be "endogenous", i.e. follow state-dependent probability distributions. We use the perturbation approach to find determinacy conditions, i.e. conditions...

I study the role of shocks to beliefs combined with Bayesian learning in a standard equilibrium business cycle framework. By adapting ideas from Cogley and Sargent (2008b) to the general equilibrium setting, I am able to study how a prior belief arising from the Great Depression may have...

In this paper, we provide determinacy conditions, i.e. conditions ensuring the existence and uniqueness of a bounded solution, in a purely forward-looking linear Markov switching rational expectations model. We thus settle the debate between Davig and Leeper (2007) and Farmer et al. (2010). The...

How are people financially literate in France? We address this question using the PATER survey and following the Lusardi and Mitchell (2011c) approach. We find that some subpopulations are less financially literate than others: women, young and old people as well as less-educated people are more...

This paper studies the social value of information about the future when agents are rationally inattentive. In a stylized OLG model of inflation the central bank (CB) can set money supply in response to the current price. The CB has perfect foresight about the future T shocks and releases this...

I model the dynamics of price adjustments to news arrival in limit order markets when investors have limited attention. Because of limited attention, investors monitor news arrival imperfectly. Consequently prices reflect news with delay. This delay shrinks when investors' attention capacity...

We use the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters to document a novel set of facts: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables: it is downward sloping for real output growth,...