The purpose of this paper is to propose discrete-time term structure models where the historical dynamics of the factor (xt) is given, in the univariate case, by a Gaussian AR(p) process, and, in the multivariate case, by a Gaussian n-dimensional VAR(p) process. The factor (xt) is considered as...

The purpose of the paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates able to capture simultaneously the following important features : (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and switching...

We consider the problems of derivative pricing and inference when the stochastic discount factor has an exponential-affine form and the geometric return of the underlying asset has a dynamics characterized by a mixture of conditionally Normal processes. We consider both the static case in which...

The purpose of this paper is to propose a general econometric approach to no-arbitrage asset pricing modelling based on three main ingredients: (i) the historical discrete-time dynamics of the factor representing the information, (ii) the Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF), and (iii) the...

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005]...

Using median-unbiased estimation based on Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions, recent research has questioned the validity of Rogoff's "remarkable consensus" of 3-5 year half-lives of deviations from PPP. The confidence intervals of these half-life estimates, however, are extremely wide,...

The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models, widely used in applied macroeconomic research. In this...

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used...

This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can be instantaneously and costlessly combined. However,...

This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major...