This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005]...

Using median-unbiased estimation based on Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions, recent research has questioned the validity of Rogoff's "remarkable consensus" of 3-5 year half-lives of deviations from PPP. The confidence intervals of these half-life estimates, however, are extremely wide,...

The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models, widely used in applied macroeconomic research. In this...

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used...

This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can be instantaneously and costlessly combined. However,...

This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major...

This paper merges two specifications developed recently in the forecasting literature: the MS-MIDAS model introduced by Guérin and Marcellino (2011) and the MIDAS-factor model considered in Marcellino and Schumacher (2010). The MS-factor MIDAS model (MS-FaMIDAS) that we introduce incorporates...

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The data are quarterly balance for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to...

This article explores the determinants of price level fluctuations in Britain during the first suspension of the gold standard over the 1797-1821 period. I find that the contemporary price level was determined by world gold prices and expectations regarding the resumption of the gold standard at...

Determining whether per capita output can be characterized by a stochastic trend is complicated by the fact that infrequent breaks in trend can bias standard unit root tests towards non-rejection of the unit root hypothesis. The bulk of the existing literature has focused on the application of...