Showing 1 - 10 of 11
private agents are gradually learning their economic environment. When agents update their beliefs about the unobserved … process driving financial shocks to the leverage ratio, the responses of output and other aggregates under adaptive learning …, debt-to-GDP and land value-to-GDP ratios for 1996Q1-2008Q4, learning amplifies leverage shocks by a factor of about three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815952
effects is interpreted as an absence of learning effects associated with exporting. This result does not seem to fully hold …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528493
This paper provides evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a simple … model with Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand parameter in each of the markets … their beliefs following a new demand shock, the younger they are. To test this learning mechanism, we make use of a specific …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272662
This paper uses a risk-averse formulation of the uncovered interest rate parity to determine exchange rates through interest rate differentials, and ultimately extract currency risk premia. The method proposed consists of developing an affine Arbitrage-Free class of dynamic Nelson-Siegel term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096780
Macroeconomic questions involving interest rates generally require a reliable joint dynamics of a large set of variables. More precisely, such a dynamic modelling must satisfy two important conditions. First, it must be able to propose reliable predictions of some key variables. Second, it must...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005034720
The paper presents a model where financial intermediaries invest in a safe and a risky, two-period asset -with aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks on tire risky asset. The realization of returns is privately observed by banks, which offer deposit contracts, with a promised return at t = 1, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036184
In this paper, we evaluate the information content of the yield curve as regards future interest rates and inflation in France and Germany. An original data set of long-term zero-coupon interest rates for French and German government bonds was constructed for the period 1980-97. Empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036209
This paper deals with tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on French, German, UK and US short-term interest rates. Three tests are examined: the first is based on forward rates and the other two are based on the interest rates spread. First, we show that the puzzle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036221
In this paper, we propose a model of the joint dynamics of euro-area sovereign yield curves. The arbitrage-free valuation framework involves five factors and two regimes, one of the latter being interpreted as a crisis regime. These common factors and regimes explain most of the fluctuations in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009371432
This paper focuses on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on long-term government bonds. Standard tests (based on the relationships between the change in the long-term rate and the spread and between the change in the short-term rate and the spread) lead to a puzzle close to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008566302