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Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Housing Prices.

Dubecq, S.; Ghattassi, I. - Banque de France - 2009

This paper shows, from the consumer budget constraint, that the consumption spending and the different components of total wealth, i.e. financial, housing and human wealths, are cointegrated and that deviations from the common trend cahy is a proxy for the consumption-wealth ratio that should...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008503200

Understanding Asset Prices: Determinants and Policy Implications.

Clerc, L. - Banque de France - 2007

' demand through credit expansion and leading to a sharp and unprecedented increase in household debt, consistent with a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998854

Stock Prices and Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach

Challe, E.; Giannitsarou, C. - Banque de France - 2011

Recent empirical literature documents that unexpected changes in the nominal interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices: a 25-basis point increase in the Fed funds rate is associated with an immediate decrease in broad stock indices that may range from 0.5 to 2.3 percent, followed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009145706

Monetary Policy and Herd Behavior: Leaning Against Bubbles.

Loisel, O.; Pommeret, A.; Portier, T. - Banque de France - 2012

We study the role of monetary policy when asset-price bubbles may form due to herd behavior in investment in an asset … from households to publicly invest in the old or the new technology. The three main results of the paper are that bubbles … directly access to less information than the investors; and that the central bank can eliminate bubbles by manipulating the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815962

Belief shocks and the macroeconomy.

Suda, J. - Banque de France - 2013

I study the role of shocks to beliefs combined with Bayesian learning in a standard equilibrium business cycle framework. By adapting ideas from Cogley and Sargent (2008b) to the general equilibrium setting, I am able to study how a prior belief arising from the Great Depression may have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816021

The Stability of Macroeconomic Systems with Bayesian Learners

Bullard, J.B.; Suda, J. - Banque de France - 2011

We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009205032

Inattentive professional forecasters

Andrade, P.; Le Bihan, H. - Banque de France - 2010

We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their forecasts in the wake of new information; (iv) disagree even...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764496

Fundamental disagreement.

Andrade, P.; Crump, R.; Eusepi, S.; Moench, E. - Banque de France - 2014

We use the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters to document a novel set of facts: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables: it is downward sloping for real output growth,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096085

Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)

Lemoine, M.; de la Serve, M.E.; Chetouane, M. - Banque de France - 2011

2007-2008 credit crisis until 2012. Such an assessment plays a central role in the determination of the structural deficit …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009205030

Excès de liquidité monétaire et prix des actifs.

Gouteron, S.; Szpiro, D. - Banque de France - 2005

The recent rise of excess liquidity in the United States and in the euro zone did not result in a resurgence of inflation. Excess liquidity, rather than heading towards the market of consumer goods, could have moved towards the asset markets. In the data covering the period going from 1980 to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056539