We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

Recent studies emphasize that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation and thus …-frequency financial market data have predictive power for the low-frequency survey-based inflation risk indicators observed at the end of …

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors … for two different sets of recent forecasts data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the U.S. and the Central Bank … inflation forecasts for France. Mainly two salient points emerge from our results. First, there is a significant contribution of …

The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem …

With the European economic integration, the understanding of inflation and inflationary pressures requires to analyse … both the national level and the whole Euro area level. This is true in particular for the inflation forecasts that are … forward a simple model of short-term developments (one year ahead) in inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of …

In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

and its contribution to inflation movements. We model the price series as I(2) components and use polynomial cointegration … inflation through an error-correcting mechanism. Structural and forecasting equations exhibiting good performance are therefore …

In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting …. Moreover, we show that it is possible to use forecasts on this indicator to project overall inflation. …

assumption improves the fit of the inflation equation. Third, this assumption is necessary for getting an important reduction of …