In this paper, we ask whether a small structural model with sticky prices and wages, embedding various modelling devices designed to increase the degree of strategic complementarity between price-setters, can fit postwar US data. To answer this question, we resort to a two-step empirical...

This paper quantitatively evaluates the ability of a Kydland and Prescott type model with permanent technology shocks and labor wedges to reproduce output persistence together with persistent impulse response functions of output to permanent and transitory shocks. When calibrated on US labor...

This paper examines the effects of introducing a non Walrasian labour market into the "New Neoclassical Synthesis'' framework. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is formulated, solved, and calibrated in order to evaluate its ability to replicate the main features of the Euro area...

In this paper, we propose a simple econometric framework to disentangle the respective roles of monetary policy inertia and persistent shocks in interest rate rules. The procedure exploits the cross-equation restrictions provided by a DSGE model which is confronted to a monetary SVAR. We show...

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation...

This paper investigates the sources of current account imbalances accumulated within the European Monetary Union before the Great Recession. First, it documents that starting in 1996, before the actual introduction of the euro, countries in the euro area periphery experienced increasing current...

This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can be instantaneously and costlessly combined. However,...

The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled interest in the issue of early warning signals (EWS) of financial distress. It has also triggered renewed interest in the literature on currency crises, with many countries, especially among emerging market economies, experiencing severe exchange market...

This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major...

Using a common database, we provide a controlled empirical comparison of recently-proposed principal component (PC) methods for selecting a combination of common and local factors that characterize the joint dynamics of multi-country term structures. We build a database of daily Treasury yield...