The purpose of this paper is to propose discrete-time term structure models where the historical dynamics of the factor (xt) is given, in the univariate case, by a Gaussian AR(p) process, and, in the multivariate case, by a Gaussian n-dimensional VAR(p) process. The factor (xt) is considered as...

The purpose of the paper is to propose a global discrete-time modeling of the term structure of interest rates able to capture simultaneously the following important features : (i) an historical dynamics of the factor driving term structure shapes involving several lagged values, and switching...

We consider the problems of derivative pricing and inference when the stochastic discount factor has an exponential-affine form and the geometric return of the underlying asset has a dynamics characterized by a mixture of conditionally Normal processes. We consider both the static case in which...

The purpose of this paper is to propose a general econometric approach to no-arbitrage asset pricing modelling based on three main ingredients: (i) the historical discrete-time dynamics of the factor representing the information, (ii) the Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF), and (iii) the...

In an otherwise unique-equilibrium model, agents are segmented into a few informational islands according to the signal they receive about others' expectations. Even if agents perfectly observe fundamentals, rational-exuberance equilibria (REX) can arise as they put weight on expectational...

The advent and spread of information and communication technologies (ICTs) increase potential output growth . It is uncertain to what extent and for how long they do so. We use the term "new economy" (NE) to describe the acceleration in potential output growth and the attendant and partly...

The acceleration of the firm failure rate in France between 2008 and 2010 was preceded by a surge in the number of firms’ creations in 2003-2004. Therefore, identifying the impact of the 2008 crisis requires to distinguish, among the failures occurring over the period, those resulting from the...

This paper is a first attempt to connect the heterogeneity in bank efficiency with lending fluctuations and allocation efficiency : there is a trade-off between the two in the presence of heterogeneity in bank monitoring efficiency. The mechanism at hand is twofold. (a) First the rent extracted...

This study provides responses to the question of the effectiveness of Loan-To-Value (LTV) and Debt Service-To-Income (DSTI) caps to contribute to financial stability. Using a lender’s risk management perspective, the paper provides a new methodology extending the standard asymptotic single...

The paper describes the methods used by the French Banking Supervision Authority (ACP) to run stress tests for the corporate credit portfolio, through credit migration matrices (or transition matrices). This approach is currently used for “top-down” stress tests exercises. Developed for...