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Demand learning and firm dynamics: evidence from exporters.
Berman, N.; Rebeyrol, V.; Vicard, V. - Banque de France - 2015
This paper provides evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a simple model with Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand parameter in each of the markets they serve, and update their beliefs as noisy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272662
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Heterogeneity, Unemployment Benefits and Voluntary Labor Force Participation.
Devulder, A. - Banque de France - 2014
In this paper, I propose a new Keynesian DSGE model with labor market search and matching frictions which replicates the low volatility and the moderate procyclicality of the labor force participation rate, that are observed in the United States at business cycle frequency. That being so,it can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816009
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Are Business and Credit Cycles Converging or Diverging? A comparison of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Euro Area.
Avouyi-Dovi, S.; Kierzenkowski, R.; Lubochinsky, C. - Banque de France - 2006
This paper provides an analysis of co-movements between real and financial variables in three new EU member countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and the euro area. It focuses on the co-movement between real credit granted to firms and real industrial output on the one hand, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998815
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Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française.
Adanero-Donderis, M.; Darné, O.; Ferrara, L. - Banque de France - 2007
This paper proposes two new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicators developed by the Bank of France in order to follow, on a monthly basis, the French economic activity. The first one is an indicator which aims at detecting the turning points of the acceleration cycle while the second one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998816
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Trends and Cycles : an Historical Review of the Euro Area.
Barthélemy, J.; Marx, M.; Poissonnier, A. - Banque de France - 2009
We analyze the euro area business cycle in a medium scale DSGE model where we assume two stochastic trends: one on total factor productivity and one on the inflation target of the central bank. To justify our choice of integrated trends, we test alternative specifications for both of them. We do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008556978
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Are the effects of fiscal changes different in times of crisis and non-crisis? The French Case
Bouthevillain, C.; Dufrénot, G. - Banque de France - 2010
magnitude in times of crisis and non-crisis in France. We find that these nonlinearities are both frequent (as they exist on all … show that if one considers the aggregate GDP, public expenditure has a stronger impact during crisis and the expenditure … taxes changes induce a (stimulus) effect in the investment rate only during non-crisis periods. A rise in subsidies has a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008606459
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Inattentive professional forecasters
Andrade, P.; Le Bihan, H. - Banque de France - 2010
We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their forecasts in the wake of new information; (iv) disagree even...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764496
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Reserve Requirements for Price and Financial Stability - When Are They Effective?
Glocker, C.; Towbin, P. - Banque de France - 2012
Reserve requirements are a prominent policy instrument in many emerging countries. The present study investigates the circumstances under which reserve requirements are an appropriate policy tool for price or financial stability. We consider a small open economy model with sticky prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009651278
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Reserve Requirements
Glocker, Ch.; Towbin P. - Banque de France - 2012
Monetary authorities in emerging markets are often reluctant to raise interest rates when dealing with credit booms driven by capital inflows, as they fear that an increase attracts even more capital and appreciates the currency. A number of countries therefore use reserve requirements as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010540385
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Bulletin de la Banque de France / Supplément Études
Banque de France - Paris : Banque - 1994 - 1996; damit Ersch. eingest.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000537014