We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

Recent studies emphasize that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation and thus …-frequency financial market data have predictive power for the low-frequency survey-based inflation risk indicators observed at the end of …

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors … for two different sets of recent forecasts data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the U.S. and the Central Bank … inflation forecasts for France. Mainly two salient points emerge from our results. First, there is a significant contribution of …

shocks in order to reconcile the volatility of individual prices with the observed persistence of aggregate inflation. We …

magnitude of wage changes strongly depends on macroeconomic variables, namely inflation and unemployment, and to a lesser extent … production and the industry level inflation, have a weaker influence. …

The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem …

With the European economic integration, the understanding of inflation and inflationary pressures requires to analyse … both the national level and the whole Euro area level. This is true in particular for the inflation forecasts that are … forward a simple model of short-term developments (one year ahead) in inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of …

In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

and its contribution to inflation movements. We model the price series as I(2) components and use polynomial cointegration … inflation through an error-correcting mechanism. Structural and forecasting equations exhibiting good performance are therefore …