The decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic slack observed in developed countries over the last 25 years … also the bigger ones) enter the export market. They tend to transmit less marginal cost fluctuations into inflation because … the proportion of large firms reduces the pass-through of marginal cost into inflation. …

indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if …In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting … stable forecasting performance over time. Results for HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy are very encouraging …. Moreover, we show that it is possible to use forecasts on this indicator to project overall inflation. …

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate … commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends on the volume of commodity imports while the impact of non …-commodity import price inflation is independent of the volume of non-commodity imports. Second, focusing on the role of intra …

With the European economic integration, the understanding of inflation and inflationary pressures requires to analyse … both the national level and the whole Euro area level. This is true in particular for the inflation forecasts that are … forward a simple model of short-term developments (one year ahead) in inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of …

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve (NKPC) states that inflation has a purely forward-looking dynamics. In this paper …, we test whether European and US inflation dynamics can be described by this model. For this purpose, we estimate hybrid … and leads of inflation, in contrast to the prediction of the core model. Second, the fraction of backward-looking price …

the interaction between partial indexation and trend inflation. We show that using a hybrid version of the Phillips curve … partly decreases the risks of overestimate due to the omission of trend inflation. We also provide new evidence on the fit of …) forgetting trend inflation induces overestimating by approximately 3-4 percent of the probability to not change the price, for …

In short-term forecasting, it is essential to take into account all available information on the current state of the … cross-validation procedure that allows automatic in-sample selection based on recent forecasting performances. Then the … developed techniques are assessed with regards to their forecasting power of US economic growth during the period 2000 …

various univariate and multivariate estimates of the real IRG for predicting inflation, real activity and real credit growth …