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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003979521
In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price developments and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765722
The paper attempts to provide, for housing markets, evidence of "shift-contagion" at the international level, i. e …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008682873
The French housing market showed some recovery in 2013 amid furthermoderate price falls in the Paris area, Île de … low levels. The volume of transactions for existing homes, the mainmarket segment, grew again (+2.1%) and housing loan … lender’s lien, or by a guarantee issued by a credit institution or an insurance company; - The cost of risk on housing loans …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010928890
In a context of declining housing sales and decreasing prices, the annual survey on housing finance carried out by the … interest rates over the year; - The ratio of non-performing housing loans grew again in 2012, but, at 1.47%, it still remained … subscribed a job-loss insurance; - The cost of risk on housing loans, which had continued to decrease in 2011 from its 2009 peak …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010929736
to LTV or DSTI tranches. On the basis of a unique database containing 850 896 individual housing loans, the results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010929761
the housing market with an error-correction process. When taking into account a standard set of macroeconomic variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008503204
We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their forecasts in the wake of new information; (iv) disagree even...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764496
financial frictions, heterogeneous agents and housing, which is estimated for both the euro area and the United States (US) over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815922
This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can be instantaneously and costlessly combined. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815947