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Protectionist Responses to the Crisis: Global Trends and Implications
Bussière, M.; Pérez-Barreiro, E.; Straub, R.; Taglioni, D. - Banque de France - 2011
Organization (WTO) member has retreated into widespread trade restrictions or protectionism to date. Our model-based simulations …In this paper we take a systematic look at recent trends in global protectionism and at the potential implications of a … that there has so far been a moderate increase in actual protectionist measures to restrict trade through tariff and non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854102
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Financial Shocks and the Cyclical Behavior of Skilled and Unskilled Unemployment.
Lopez, J.I.; Moppett, V. Olivella - Banque de France - 2014
We study the effect of financial shocks in labor market dynamics. We build a model with two types of labor, two types of capital and both search and financial frictions. We find that financial shocks, modeled as exogenous disturbances to the borrowing constraint of firms, can generate realistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815961
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The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?
Siena, D. - Banque de France - 2014
This paper investigates the sources of current account imbalances accumulated within the European Monetary Union before the Great Recession. First, it documents that starting in 1996, before the actual introduction of the euro, countries in the euro area periphery experienced increasing current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815969
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Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors.
Bec, F.; Bessec, M. - Banque de France - 2012
survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The data are quarterly balance for France … inventory investment bounce-back occurs later and lasts longer in manufacturing than in retail trade sector. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816020
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Belief shocks and the macroeconomy.
Suda, J. - Banque de France - 2013
I study the role of shocks to beliefs combined with Bayesian learning in a standard equilibrium business cycle framework. By adapting ideas from Cogley and Sargent (2008b) to the general equilibrium setting, I am able to study how a prior belief arising from the Great Depression may have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816021
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Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition.
Ferrara, L.; Koopman, S J. - Banque de France - 2010
The 2007 sub-prime crisis in the United States, prolonged by a severe economic recession spread over many countries around the world, has led many economic researchers to focus on the recent fluctuations in housing prices and their relationships with macroeconomics and monetary policies. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008503197
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Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France.
Aghion, P.; Askenazy, P.; Berman, N.; Cette, G.; Eymard, L. - Banque de France - 2008
We use a French firm-level panel data set over the period 1993-2004 to analyze the relationship between credit constraints and firms' R&D behavior over the business cycle. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) the share of R&D investment over total investment is countercyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528504
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Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?
Bellone, B.; Gautier, E.; Le Coent, S. - Banque de France - 2005
This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056509
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The changing role of house price dynamics over the business cycle
Dufrénot, G.; Malik, S. - Banque de France - 2010
In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price developments and the business cycle. Employing a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008765722
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Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial.
Bellégo, C.; Ferrara, L. - Banque de France - 2009
Recent macroeconomic evolutions during the years 2008 and 2009 have pointed out the impact of financial markets on economic activity. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the ability of a set of financial variables to forecast recessions in the euro area by using a non-linear binary response...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008556977