Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR) with time-varying parameters and volatility we investigate monetary policy in the United States, in particular its interaction with the formation of inflation expectations and the linkages between monetary policy, inflation...

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long--run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables...

This paper challenges the assumption that the inflation process within the euro area is well-described by a linear Phillips curve and investigates in a nonparametric framework how inflation is sensitive to output growth. An asymmetric output-inflation trade-off is pointed out in the euro area at...

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...

Microeconomic price rigidity is one of the main assumptions of the neo-keynesian macroeconomic models. Firms are not able to adjust continuously their prices. In this paper, we make a synthesis of the main microeconomic price setting theoretical models and of their empirical counterparts. Price...

This paper focuses on the price stability objective within the framework of the single monetary policy strategy. It starts by reviewing what this objective, which is common to all central banks, means. Secondly, this paper will focus exclusively on the anchoring of short- to medium-term...

Recent empirical literature documents that unexpected changes in the nominal interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices: a 25-basis point increase in the Fed funds rate is associated with an immediate decrease in broad stock indices that may range from 0.5 to 2.3 percent, followed...

We estimate the reaction function of monetary policy in the Euro area and derive the Taylor-type policy rule that a would-be ECB would have followed since the beginning of the European Monetary System (1979-2003). We first follow the standard GMM methodology developed by Clarida, Galí and...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

Estimates of the Nairu generally suffer from a large uncertainty, which can be reduced by adopting a bivariate framework and assuming that shifts of the Phillips curve share a common trend with the unemployment rate. We consider in this paper if this common trend assumption is empirically...