In order to analyse the interest rate transmission mechanism, we study daily Euro-rates term structure for the US, Germany, and the UK between 1983 and 1997. We estimate multivariate VECM-GARCH models, which takes into account most of the usual feaures of financial data (non-stationarity,...

Non parametric and parametric estimation for the spectral density of a stationary process is a well-known topic, except when the spectrum vanishes for some frequency. Indeed, for this frequency, the limit law degenerates, and traditional inference no longer applies. The paper introduces non...

In this paper, we show how to estimate consistently the degree of fractional integration at a given frequency K, for both stationary and non stationary long-memory process. The statistics used are the periodigram for values Kn which converge to K with an appropriate rate. We also introduce tests...

It is well-known that traditional inference do not apply when the spectral density of a stationary process vanishes for some frequency. This paper examines some properties of several new non parametric tests of this hypothesis which have been recently proposed by Lacroix (1999). These tests...

A large part of the term structure literature interprets the first underlying factors as a level factor, a slope factor, and a curvature factor. In this paper we consider factor models interpretable as a level factor model, a level and a slope factor model, respectively. We prove that such...

In this paper we give a precise definition of long-run causality in a multivariate non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long-run if knwoledge of the past of the former improves long-run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework,...

Henry Thornton (1760-1815), whose major work - An Enquiry into the Nature and Effects of the Paper Credit of Great Britain - is celebrating its bicentennary in 2002, is considered today to be one of the most prominent classical monetary economist, in particular with regard to its seminal...

In this paper we give a precise definition of long-run causality in a multivariate non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long-run if knwoledge of the past of the former improves long-run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework,...

The aim of this paper is to compare various methods which extract a Risk Neutral Density (RND) out of PIBOR as well as of Notional interest rate futures options and to investigate how traders reacted to a political event. We first focus on 5 dates surrounding the 1997 snap election and several...

This paper tries to improve the understanding of the French interwar monetary situation by using thoroughly one indicator: long-term interest rates. As such, it could be attacked from a methodological point of view as relying excessively on that indicator and on a small number of hypothesis...