We present a simple theory of business-cycle movements of option prices and volumes. This theory relies on time-varying heterogeneity between agents in their demand for insurance against aggregate risk. Formally, we build an infinite-horizon model where agents face an aggregate risk, but also...

The purpose of this paper is to propose discrete-time term structure models where the historical dynamics of the factor (xt) is given, in the univariate case, by a Gaussian AR(p) process, and, in the multivariate case, by a Gaussian n-dimensional VAR(p) process. The factor (xt) is considered as...

We consider the problems of derivative pricing and inference when the stochastic discount factor has an exponential-affine form and the geometric return of the underlying asset has a dynamics characterized by a mixture of conditionally Normal processes. We consider both the static case in which...

We study the liquidity allocation among European banks around the Lehman Brothers’ insolvency using a novel dataset of all interbank loans settled via the Eurosystem’s payment system TARGET2. Following the Lehman insolvency, lenders in the overnight segment become sensitive to counterparty...

The purpose of this paper is to cast a new light on the present state of global current account imbalances. As a first step, we compute the world distribution of current account balances, in order to highlight its historically-unprecedented pattern, both in terms of the size of imbalances, its...

In the context of the recent deceleration of growth in emerging Europe, we reassess empirically the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on economic growth in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) through an analysis carried out over the period 1993-2013. In a first step,...

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration...

The main purpose of the paper is to contribute to the empirical works relating to exchange rate pass-through. Indeed, we revisit the Taylor (2000) proposition for some developing countries in order to examine the decline in their pass-through coefficients, and to find possible explanations for...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of demographic uncertainty in a multi-regional general equilibrium, overlapping generations model (INGENUE 2). Specifically, we will consider the level of uncertainty in each of the ten major regions of the world, and their correlation across regions. In...

Depuis le debut des annees 1990, l'investissement total des secteurs marchands (SQS-EI, administrations privees, etablissements de credit et entreprises d'assurance) semble connaitre un niveau plus failbe que celui que conduirait a prevoir la dynamique qui prevalait dans les annees 1980. Les...