Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 83
Cover Image
An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area.
Chauvin, V.; Devulder, A. - Banque de France - 2008
commonly used to forecast short-term price developments. On the whole, the model provides more accurate forecasts than those … provided by the autoregressive model, and a sector-based disaggregated approach outperforms a single equation to forecast total … econometric characteristics and forecast performance of the equations of our model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528512
Cover Image
DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment.
Boivin, J.; Giannoni, M. - Banque de France - 2007
Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998848
Cover Image
Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor-augmented mixed-frequency approach.
Ferrara, L.; Marsilli, C. - Banque de France - 2014
Facing several economic and financial uncertainties, assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is often considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010939336
Cover Image
Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?
Ferrara, L.; Marcellino, M.; Mogliani, M. - Banque de France - 2012
period. In spite of this result, non-linear models enable to improve forecast accuracy in almost 40% of cases. Especially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550857
Cover Image
Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?
Bec, F.; Mogliani, M. - Banque de France - 2013
This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of two alternative forecasting strategies, namely the forecast and … information combinations. Theoretically, there should be no role for forecast combinations in a world where information sets can … equivalent to, more sophisticated forecast combination schemes. However, when a predictive encompassing model is obtained by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815947
Cover Image
New estimate of the MIBA forecasting model. Modeling first-release GDP using the Banque de France's Monthly Business Survey and the “blocking” approach.
Mogliani, M.; Brunhes-Lesage, V.; Darné, O.; Pluyaud, B. - Banque de France - 2014
This paper introduces the new Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) model of the Banque de France for forecasting France's GDP. As the previous versions, the model relies exclusively on data from the monthly business survey (EMC) conducted by the Banque de France. However, several major...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010815984
Cover Image
The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area.
Andrade, P.; Fourel, V.; Ghysels, E.; Idier, I. - Banque de France - 2013
Recent studies emphasize that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation and thus useful for monetary authorities. However, these data are typically available at a quarterly frequency whereas monetary policy decisions require a more frequent monitoring of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010816003
Cover Image
Forecasting inflation in France.
Célérier, C. - Banque de France - 2009
The paper develops a model for forecasting inflation in France. As this model has to be integrated in the Eurosystem projection exercises, the projections are conditional to specific assumptions and must be consistent with the Macroeconomic projection exercise of the Banque de France. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008503203
Cover Image
The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area.
Mésonnier, J-S. - Banque de France - 2006
The real interest rate gap or IRG -the gap between the short term real interest rate and its "natural" level-, is a theoretical concept that has attracted much attention in central banks in recent years. This paper aims at clarifying its practical relevance for monetary policy in real time. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998811
Cover Image
Forecasting Inflation in the Euro Area
Bruneau, C.; De Bandt, O.; Flageollet, A. - Banque de France - 2003
In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the usefulness of dynamic factor models. We use Stock and Watson's (1999) out-of-sample methodology for models estimated over the 1988:1-2002:3 period, with balanced and unbalanced panels....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056518