Theory and evidence suggest that in an environment of well-anchored expectations, temporary economic news or shocks should not affect agents' expectations of inflation in the long term. Our estimated structural VARs show that both long- and short-term inflation expectations are sensitive to...

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...

In this paper, we empirically examine the effect of inflation targeting on the exchange rate pass-through to prices in emerging countries. We use a panel VAR that allows us to use a large dataset on twenty-seven emerging countries (fifteen inflation targeters and twelve inflation nontargeters)....

The recent boom in housing markets of most developed economies has spurred criticism that inflation targeting central banks may have neglected the build-up of financial imbalances. This paper provides a formal empirical test of such claims, using a standard program evaluation methodology to...

This paper focuses on the price stability objective within the framework of the single monetary policy strategy. It starts by reviewing what this objective, which is common to all central banks, means. Secondly, this paper will focus exclusively on the anchoring of short- to medium-term...

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends...

This paper proposes a full description of the Calvo price-setting model based on partial prices indexation and studies the interaction between partial indexation and trend inflation. We show that using a hybrid version of the Phillips curve partly decreases the risks of overestimate due to the...

The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve (NKPC) states that inflation has a purely forward-looking dynamics. In this paper, we test whether European and US inflation dynamics can be described by this model. For this purpose, we estimate hybrid Phillips curves, which include both backward and...

The decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic slack observed in developed countries over the last 25 years has been often attributed to globalization. However, this intuition has so far not been formalized. I develop a general equilibrium setup that can rationalize the flattening of...