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We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...
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We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009145707
The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables … in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long … disinflation shock, inefficiencies in the labor market seem to prevail. These conclusions are robust to modifications of our …
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Climate change poses new challenges to central banks, regulators and supervisors. This book reviews ways of addressing these new risks within central banks’ financial stability mandate. However, integrating climate-related risk analysis into financial stability monitoring is particularly...
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