This article analyzes the hysteresis hypothesis in the unemployment rates of the four French overseas regions (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, Reunion) [FORs] over the period 1993-2008. We use standard univariate and panel unit root tests, among them Choi (2006) and Lopez (2009) that account for...

This paper aims to complete our understanding of the relationship between changes in nominal effective exchange rates and prices in the new EU member states. We investigate the exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices for ten Central and Eastern European countries with...

The present paper investigates the dynamic effects of disinflation shocks for a number of real macroeconomic variables in the euro area. Using structural VARs, we identify disinflation shocks as the only shocks that can exert a long--run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables...

This paper challenges the assumption that the inflation process within the euro area is well-described by a linear Phillips curve and investigates in a nonparametric framework how inflation is sensitive to output growth. An asymmetric output-inflation trade-off is pointed out in the euro area at...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

This study identifies common features of currency crises in 15 emerging countries over the period 1980-1998. By analyzinf such features, we build an early-warning system aimed at predicting looming crises in probabilistic terms.