expected inflation, measured at a bi-annual frequency, actual inflation, unemployment and a nominal interest rate to estimate … monetary policy in the United States, in particular its interaction with the formation of inflation expectations and the … linkages between monetary policy, inflation expectations and the behaviour of CPI inflation. We use Livingston Survey data for …

on the inflation process. …

exclusively on the anchoring of short- to medium-term inflation expectations (Part 2). Several measures show that this anchoring … expectations has on the determination of the short- to medium-term inflation rate. From this point of view, observed inflation in … on the other aspect of monetary stability: the degree of price-level uncertainty and the anchoring of inflation …

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

found to help rationalizing the hump-shaped response of inflation, without resorting to the counterfactual assumption of …

episode techniques, we identify disinflation shocks as shocks that drive the inflation rate to a lower level in the long … inflation rate increases above its long-run level and exhibits a positive hump-shaped response. A similar pattern is found for …

The Euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly … these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed serially correlated changes in the inflation target into a DSGE model with … real and nominal frictions. The formal Bayesian estimation of the model suggests that gradual changes in the inflation …

responses of output, inflation, labor share and the nominal interest rate to a supply shock as identified through a structural …

unemployment rate has increased and economic activity has been sluggish. Changes in the implicit inflation target, viewed as low … frequency movements of inflation, might possibly explain these developments. To highlight this issue, the present study … estimates the dynamics of the implicit inflation target in the euro zone over the period 1970Q1-2004Q4. Based on a small …