In these notes I go over some basic aspects of the analysis of business cycles and aggregate fluctuations from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) perspective. I build a cannonical DSGE model with a small number of representative agents and a large set of distortionnary wedges...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

Using different credit measures, this study identifies the credit booms in Turkey that have occurred after December 2002, and examines their determinants. We find that the primary factors that have a strong correlation with the probability of a credit boom are the changes in the slope of the...

Which structural macroeconomic shocks have typified rising house prices? What ultimate factors have compromised financial stability and risk? These questions are answered for the Venezuelan economy by estimating a FAVAR model with macroeconomic, banking and asset price variables. We find that...

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...

In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden...

The rate of time preference (RTP) has traditionally not been regarded as an important source of economic fluctuations. In this paper, I show that it is an important factor influencing economic fluctuations because households must have an expected RTP for the representative household (RTP RH) to...

In this paper, several flaws of the basic no-capital/labor-only New Keynesian model are discussed. Some flaws were left undiscovered because mass of varieties n in Dixit-Stiglitz aggregator is often considered as not affecting overall outcomes. Only when n=1 would ordinary results of the basic...

In this paper, several flaws of the basic no-capital/labor-only New Keynesian model are discussed. Some flaws were left undiscovered because mass of varieties n in Dixit-Stiglitz aggregator is often considered as not affecting overall outcomes. Only when n=1 would ordinary results of the basic...

In this paper, several flaws of the basic no-capital/labor-only New Keynesian model are discussed. Some flaws were left undiscovered because mass of varieties n in Dixit-Stiglitz aggregator is often considered as not affecting overall outcomes. Only when n=1 would ordinary results of the basic...