We analyze the determinants of real estate and credit bubbles using a unique borrower-lender matched dataset on mortgage loans in Spain. The dataset contain real estate credit and price conditions (loan principal and spread, and the appraisal and market price) at the mortgage level, matched with...

In this paper we assess the stability of open economy backward looking Phillips curves estimated across two different exchange rate regimes. The time series we deal with come from the simulation of a New-Keynesian hybrid model suited for performing monetary policy analysis. The statistical...

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors' risk aversion and behavior. This paper presents a stylized model illustrating how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion...

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaper than borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes the relative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereign bond prices, returns,...

This paper utilizes two different classification techniques to explore issues in the development of an early warning system for sovereign default. Specifically, the paper develops K-means clustering and logit models to illustrate how the optimal choice of parameters, such as assignment rule of...

We argue that emerging economies borrow short term due to the high risk premium charged by international capital markets on long-term debt. First, we present a model where the debt maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharing problem between the government and bondholders. By issuing...

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself...

The public debt may hamper US GDP say studies that estimate debt tipping effects as if there were a single world currency. This means that such studies ignore the likely biggest cause of changes in growth rates, namely damage from exchange rate liquidity shocks because we do not live in the...