This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk...

Epidemics are often modeled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions, seasonal effects, etc.). These models assign diffusion...

With hedgefunds, managers develop risk management models that mainly aim to play on the effect of de correlation.In order to achieve this goal,companies use the correlation coefficient as an indicator for measuring dependencies existing between(i)the various hedge funds strategies and share...

In the first part of this thesis, we introduce a new methodology for stress-test exercises. Our approach allows to consider richer stress-test exercises, which assess the impact of a modification of the whole distribution of asset prices’ factors, rather than focusing as the common practices...

This report summarises the findings of an ad hoc working group that reviewed the academic literature relevant to the regulatory framework for the trading book. This project was carried out in the first half of 2010 acting upon a request from the Trading Book Group to the Research Task Force of...