We investigate autoregressive approximations of multiple frequency I(1) processes, of which I(1) processes are a special class. The underlying data generating process is assumed to allow for an infinite order autoregressive representation where the coefficients of the Wold representation of the...

A system of U.S. and euro area short- and long-term interest rates is analyzed. According to the expectations hypothesis of the term structure the interest rate spreads should be stationary and according to the uncovered interest rate parity the difference between the U.S. and euro area longterm...

We explore the international spillovers from fiscal policy shocks via trade in Europe. A fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, which leads to more foreign exports and, hence, higher foreign output. To quantify this, we combine a panel VAR model in government spending, net taxes and GDP...

This paper provides a discussion of the `housing market' channels of the monetarytransmission mechanism (MTM) and offers some evidence on institutional differences in the European housing and mortgage markets. Using a number of VAR models, estimated individually for nine European countries over...

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identifying restrictions for shocks and impulse responses are usually derived from economic theory or institutional constraints. Sometimes the restrictions are insufficient for identifying all shocks and impulse responses. In this paper it is...

A central issue of monetary policy analysis is the specification of monetary policy shocks. In a structural vector autoregressive setting there has been some controversy about which restrictions to use for identifying the shocks because standard theories do not provide enough information to...

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. Unfortunately, these shocks may not have a meaningful structural economic interpretation. It is...

Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models are in frequent use for impulse response analysis. If cointegrated variables are involved, the corresponding vector error correction models offer a convenient framework for imposing structural long-run and short-run restrictions. Occasionally it is...

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the subcomponents of the HICP and...

In this paper it is advocated to select a model only if it significantly contributes to the accuracy of a combined forecast. Using hold-out-data forecasts of individual models and of the combined forecast, a useful test for equal forecast accuracy can be designed. An illustration for real-time...