An output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the...

Methods are described for the appropriate use of data obtained and analysed in real time to represent the output gap. The methods employ cointegrating VAR techniques to model real time measures and realisations of output series jointly. The model is used to mitigate the impact of data revisions;...

This paper describes an approach that accommodates in a coherent way three types of uncertainty when measuring the output gap. These are trend uncertainty (associated with the choice of model and de-trending technique), estimation uncertainty (with a given model) and data uncertainty (associated...

We evaluate the forecast performance of a range of theory-based and atheoretical models explaining exchange rates and interest rates in US, UK and Japan. The decision-making environment is fully described for an investor who optimally allocates portfolio shares to domestic and foreign assets....