This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade … risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade …

with the loss of trade gains. However, countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because … probability of escalation is indeed lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated … multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country. Using a theoretically-based econometric model, we …

inadequate information manifest themselves most strongly at national borders and over distance. …