Smets, Frank; Tsatsaronis, Kostas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
countries demand and monetary policy shocks contribute to the covariance between output growth and the lagged term spread, while … spread in that country. However, the main reason for the stronger leading indicator property in Germany is the positive …This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United …