Experiments in psychology, where subjects estimate confidence intervals to a series of factual questions, have shown that individuals report far too narrow intervals. This has been interpreted as evidence of overconfidence in the preciseness of knowledge, a potentially serious violation of the...

This paper integrates seemingly disjoint studies on consumer behavior in micro and macro analyses via the intertemporal two-stage budgeting procedure with durable goods and liquidity constraints. The model accounts for the influences of nondurables consumption, commodity prices, and durables...