Experiments in psychology, where subjects estimate confidence intervals to a series of factual questions, have shown that individuals report far too narrow intervals. This has been interpreted as evidence of overconfidence in the preciseness of knowledge, a potentially serious violation of the...

'I only wish that Ian McDonald's Behavioural Macroeconomics had been available when I was preparing A Guide to Behavioral Economics; it certainly would have provided me with material to fill in a number of gaps and cite several additional important concerns!'--Hugh Schwartz, University of the...