Showing 1 - 6 of 6
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563
To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950
For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415
theory of interacting particle systems. We clarify the structure of the equilibrium joint rating distribution using ergodic … losses ; voter model ; Choquet theory ; ergodic decomposition ; re-scaling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627288
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104
VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401